Calibrating CAT Bonds for Mexican Earthquakes

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Calibrating CAT Bonds for Mexican Earthquakes

Calibrating CAT Bonds for Mexican Earthquakes

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  • MVA

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Description

Calibrating CAT Bonds for Mexican Earthquakes
The study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in the prevention and mitigation of disasters. After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. This paper examines the calibration of a real parametric CAT bond for earthquakes that was sponsored by the Mexican government. The calibration of the CAT bond is based on the estimation of the intensity rate that describes the earthquake process from the two sides of the contract, the reinsurance and the capital markets, and from the historical data. The results demonstrate that, under specific conditions, the financial strategy of the government, a mix of reinsurance and CAT bond, is optimal in the sense that it provides coverage of USD 450 million for a lower cost than the reinsurance itself. Since other variables can affect the value of the losses caused by earthquakes, e.g. magnitude, depth, city impact, etc., we also derive the price of a hypothetical modeled-index (zero) coupon CAT bond for earthquakes, which is based on a compound doubly stochastic Poisson pricing methodology. In essence, this hybrid trigger combines modeled loss and index trigger types, trying to reduce basis risk borne by the sponsor while still preserving a non-indemnity trigger mechanism. Our results indicate that the (zero) coupon CAT bond price increases as the threshold level increases, but decreases as the expiration time increases. Due to the quality of the data, the results show that the expected loss is considerably more important for the valuation of the CAT bond than the entire distribution of losses.

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Meet the instructors !

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About the Instructor

Wolfgang Karl HÄRDLE attained his Dr. rer. nat. in Mathematics at Universität Heidelberg in 1982 and in 1988 his habilitation at Universität Bonn.  He is Ladislaus von Bortkiewicz Professor of Statistics at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and the director of the Sino German Graduate School (洪堡大学 + 厦门大学) IRTG1792 on “High dimensional non stationary time series analysis”.  He directs  IDA Institute for Digital Assets,  

  University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, RO. His research focuses on data analytics, dimension reduction and quantitative finance.  He has published over 30 books and more than 300 papers in top statistical, econometrics and finance journals. He is highly ranked and cited on Google Scholar, REPEC and SSRN. He has professional experience in financial engineering, S.M.A.R.T. (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Timely) data analytics, machine learning and cryptocurrency markets. He has created the www.quantlet.com platform, a cryptocurrency index, CRIX www.royalton-crix.com  He is 玉山学者 (Yushan Scholar), web page hu.berlin/wkh